COVID19 Clinical Predictors and Outcome

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, Hubei, China, and now spreads across international borders. As of 11 April 2020, the total global number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases reached 1,521,252 (92,798 deaths); with 65,081 (7,978 deaths) being reported in the United Kingdom. COVID-19 is the name of the disease associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and includes a spectrum of illness that ranges from mild infection to severe pneumonia that can progress to respiratory failure and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) or septic shock. Between 8 to 15% (depending on geographical setting) of all SARS-CoV-2 positive cases can be classified as severe or necessitating intensive care unit (ICU) admission. In the early stages of the outbreak unfolding, several retrospective case studies and cases series carried out in China reported that those who died were more likely to be male, and more likely to have underlying comorbidities. Prevalence studies conducted in the US and Italy show similar trends in the distribution of comorbidities among SARS-CoV-2 severe cases; adding obesity (BMI\>30) to the list of factors potentially associated with disease severity. However, the relative importance of different underlying health conditions remains unclear owing to inadequate adjustment for important confounding factors such as age, sex, and smoking status. We propose a cohort study to evaluate predictors, clinical evolution and excess of mortality of SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalised patients, with two main workstreams- the first looking at all patients admitted to SGHFT and the second looking at patients admitted to ITU with respiratory failure.